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INSIGHT

The South Tops the Investor List Again, but Land Gets Decided Submarket by Submarket

ULI and PwC put Dallas-Fort Worth first for a third straight year and the South in six of the top 10, while warning that policy and submarkets now decide who wins.

October 28, 2026

What the survey said

CRE Daily reported this morning that Dallas-Fort Worth ranked first on the markets to watch list in ULI and PwC's Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2027 for the third year running, with Nashville, Miami and Raleigh-Durham right behind it. Southern and Southeastern metros took six of the top 10 spots. The same survey found that only 50.5% of respondents rated their own market good to excellent, down from 55% a year ago and 65% two years ago, even as the buy barometer hit an all time high. PwC's release frames 2027 as a year where returns have to be earned, with rates high for longer, development pipelines shrinking, and a theme that matters more to land than any ranking: "Policy is the New Geography."

Why the rankings and the dirt tell different stories

A metro ranking is a capital allocation signal, not a land pricing signal. When the same Southern names lead year after year, money follows, and land sellers in those metros start pricing the ranking instead of the lot. That is the Southern Squeeze seen from the other side: the more consensus a market becomes, the more land basis eats into a builder's ability to deliver an attainable home.

Austin is the cautionary tale inside the same report. Bisnow noted it fell to 30th last year and has only climbed back to 21st as it works through elevated supply. Austin's fundamentals did not collapse. Its land was priced for an absorption pace that did not last.

Record buying appetite next to falling confidence in local conditions is the tell. CRE Daily noted the report reads that split two ways: either buyers believe prices have reset, or capital simply has to be deployed. On land, I lean toward the second reading in the top tier and the first reading in the metros just below it.

Where we see the opportunity

The more useful finding is what PwC calls the submarket sort, the idea that performance now varies more within metros than between them. In a metro like Dallas-Fort Worth, the difference between a corridor with water and sewer capacity, a predictable council and a clear entitlement path, and one waiting on a utility district, is worth more than the metro's rank.

Columbus, on our watchlist, is the clearest example. Bisnow reported it jumped from 38th to 19th, anchored by a roughly $28 billion semiconductor campus. That is the employer anchored workforce housing story we look for, as long as the lots near those jobs stay buildable at a workforce price. Raleigh, also on our watchlist, moved up seven spots by adding manufacturing to its life sciences base.

The risks I would not ignore

Policy cuts both ways. The report lists rent rules, insurance costs, permitting and utility limits as the variables that decide whether good fundamentals actually pay off. A market can top a survey and still have a land problem if impact fees rise, a utility pauses new connections, or insurance pushes the finished home past what local buyers can carry. Financing is the other pressure. Realtor.com reported that mortgage rates crossed into the 7% range in early October for the first time this year, with the 10 year Treasury holding around 5%. The supply gap PwC describes will reward the owner of entitled lots in two years, but it punishes the owner of raw ground who needs to carry or finance it today.

What we are watching

Whether the record buy appetite turns into land closings in the top five metros or stays parked in stabilized assets. How quickly Austin's absorption lets lot prices find a floor. And which of our watchlist metros see utility and permitting decisions move faster than their survey rank. Data over emotion: the rankings tell you where capital is headed, and the parcel tells you whether it will be rewarded.

If you are sizing up land in one of these metros and want a second set of eyes on the entitlement path, infrastructure and feasibility before you commit, that is the work we do at Kaufman Real Estate & Consulting.

Visit Kaufman Real Estate & Consulting

Daniel Kaufman, Founder and CEO, Kaufman & Company

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