Two New Governors, Two Housing Theories, and Land Gets Priced Under Both
Texas elected a governor who wants to rein in corporate homebuyers, California elected one promising permit shot clocks and lower impact fees, and each plan hits lot values in a different place.
What changed Tuesday night
Realtor.com reported this morning that Gina Hinojosa defeated Greg Abbott in the Texas governor's race and that Xavier Becerra won California comfortably. What matters here is what each platform does to land, because the two plans pull very different levers.
In Texas, the agenda is about who gets to buy the finished house. Hinojosa has pushed to keep private equity out of single family homes. In 2025 she filed one bill that would have capped covered corporate owners at 10 rental homes and another that would have kept investment firms off new listings for their first 30 days. Neither passed. In California, the agenda is about how fast and how cheaply a house gets built: a housing emergency declared on day one, 90-day permit shot clocks, lower impact fees, faster review for modular homes, and by-right approvals near jobs and transit, according to Realtor.com's coverage.
Texas: a demand side lever in a supply side state
Texas is already the country's biggest builder, with 14.6% of all building permits, per Realtor.com. Investors are also a bigger share of the buyer pool there. Realtor.com puts them at 15.9% of purchases in San Antonio, 15.6% in Dallas-Fort Worth, 13.5% in Houston and 12.4% in Austin, against 11.3% nationally in 2025, and they skew toward the cheaper end of each market.
That cheaper end is where the land question lives. Build-to-rent communities and bulk sales to single family rental operators have been a steady bid for entry level lots on the edges of Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio and Houston. If a cap on corporate ownership ever passes, the first casualty is not the resale house. It is the bid for raw ground underwritten as a rental community. Expect offers on those parcels to soften before any bill moves, because capital prices policy risk early.
The property tax promise cuts the other way. Lower homeowner taxes raise what buyers can afford, and some of that flows back into lots. But Realtor.com notes that replacing homeowner school maintenance taxes alone would cost roughly $8.6 billion a year, Republicans are still expected to hold the state Senate, and control of the Texas House was undecided Wednesday morning. That is a lot of ifs to underwrite.
California: cheaper entitlement, with a bill attached
Becerra's plan goes straight at the real bottleneck. Impact fees and permit timelines are land costs. A lot waiting on approvals carries taxes and interest the whole time, and fees come due before a home closes. Faster approvals and lower fees raise what a builder can pay for dirt and bring marginal sites back into play, especially infill near transit if the by-right piece survives. The state needs it: Realtor.com gave California an F on affordability and found the typical household earns 49% less than it takes to buy the median home.
The risk is the one Realtor.com economist Jiayi Xu flagged. Cities lean on those fees to pay for roads, water and sewer, and the campaign has not said what replaces the money. If fees fall and nothing fills the gap, infrastructure stalls, and an entitled lot without pipe in the ground is not a finished lot.
Our take, and what we are watching
On the LandBriefing watchlist, Austin and Dallas already sit in the caution tier on price and supply signals. This news does not change those scores, but in my view it adds a policy discount to rental focused land in Texas until the Legislature shows its hand in the 2027 session. For-sale entry level lots look steadier, since owner occupants would absorb some of what investors stop buying.
In California, the opportunity is in sites that died on fees and timelines over the last few years. If shot clocks and fee cuts become law alongside a real infrastructure funding fix, those parcels can reprice quickly. Without the fix, I would not pay for the promise. We are watching the first bills filed in Austin in January, whether the Texas House flips, and whether Sacramento pairs fee cuts with state money for pipes and roads. Land should be priced on what passes, not on what was promised.
If you are underwriting land in Texas or California and want to pressure test how these policy scenarios change feasibility and exit, Kaufman Real Estate & Consulting does that work in strategy sessions and land and site reviews.
Talk to Kaufman Real Estate & Consulting- Gina Hinojosa Ousts Greg Abbott in Texas Governor's Race: What Her Win Means for Housing, Realtor.com, November 4, 2026
- Xavier Becerra Wins California's Race for Governor on Pro-Housing Platform, Realtor.com, November 4, 2026